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Therefore, China would need to attack Europe for a full war to breakout between China and NATO. On the day World War II began, George Bernard Shaw wrote, "There will be only two winners: The United States and the Soviet Union." More than eight decades later, as major powers find themselves stuck in a war in Ukraine, there seems to be just one winner this time and that county is not even a direct party to the conflict People's Republic of China. Others would be unwilling to join a US-China war, seeing it as not in their interest. A new T-14 Armata main battle tank costs the Russian government around $3.7 million; again, about one third the expense of a NATO and American tank. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? NATO maintains its own standing army. As a communist country more closely aligned with the Soviets during the Cold War, there was no possibility for China to join the alliance. Owner of this site is not responsible for potential mistakes or lacks of data. He told Deutsche Welle: "In the first part of August, China conducted missile tests, large-scale air and sea exercises, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion against Taiwan. However, there are other factors that would likely determine the outcome of a war between NATO and China. Admission of new members to military alliance could create a more dangerous balance of power, experts warn. The latest news, analysis, and data from the country each week. One-stop digest of politics, economics, and culture. "If Russia wins this war, he will have confirmation that violence works. The U.S. Air Force (USAF) would play a supporting role in . China has stated clearly that it will reunite with Taiwan and is willing to do this by force if necessary. Six decades after ideological differences between the worlds communist powers resulted in the Sino-Soviet split, China and Russia have reunited, driven by their shared quest for a global redistribution of power and desire to dismantle the U.S.-led world order. Russia has a conventional war advantage with more than 22,710 battle tanks. This is a simple match. and win, a nuclear war with Russia. It tracks Chinas incredible rise over recent decades and how Chinas growing global influence is already affecting the wider world. Ukraine is, of course, not a member and therefore the alliance is not obliged to defend it. This is why China will never ask Russia to ditch India or Vietnam vis--vis China. Make no mistake, this goes far beyond the current conflict in Ukraine. Instead, Washington should actively lead, moving from a model where Washington provides defense to allies to one where Washington contributes to allies self-defense. The US, declaring a unipolar moment . April 20, 2022. But the US has a great advantage in the air and the sea. Here's the latest. U.S. interests in Europe are too significant to let them be worked out solely between Putin and the United States European allies. FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. The country's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, has said this week that China's recent military exercises show that an invasion is being planned. Biden's public mantra has been " nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine " and "will stand with you . NATO's main headquarters are located in Brussels. It's the most powerful military alliance in human history versus well, Russia and China. Ok, so does that mean China is a threat to NATO? But their bids particularly Sweden's are being delayed by Turkey, which wants the two countries to crack down on mostly Kurdish groups Ankara regards as terrorists. Allies do need, therefore, to step up and do more for their defense, but they will not do it on their own if the United States threatens to leave Europe. Weve signed on to it and all the intended agreements made from there. Well send you latest news updates through the day. Nato has so far remained on the sidelines, theoretically. They do simulations or war plans. And how might that be impacting the world? But the three leading Nato members, the US, France and the UK have between them at least 6,600 nuclear warheads, slightly bigger than Russias. However, it's worth noting that the U.S. alone, which is a member of NATO, has a military budget of $740.5 billion. Actually, there are a two clear reasons why China is not in NATO: Only countries in Europe or North America can join NATO. Indeed, the European Union, not Asia, is the United States largest trade and investment partner, and this imbalance is much starker when China (which the United States seeks greater economic decoupling from), is removed from the equation. Crediting former Russian Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov for the strategic RIC grouping, he said, "RIC is a platform for India and China in our presence, because they might not feel comfortable being one-on-one all the time to find some additional common grounds." Is Weiss correct? More importantly, who will win if Nato decides to declare war on Russia, the worlds most formidable nuclear power? Scholz also said that Germany is working on meeting NATO's 2% defense spending target. It is also almost impossible to conceive China launching an assault against either the mainland United States or Europe. When it comes to personnel, China . Opinion | Ukraine says fighters holding their ground in Bakhmut, but at a heavy cost. The threat posed by China is also serious. Moreover, Russia and China are increasingly working together. Similarly, the United States could rely on threatening nonstrategic nuclear strikes to deter and, as a last resort, thwart a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan or a Russian tank incursion into Europe. Highest value in the world: 816 billion $ (, Highest value in the world: 385,821,101 (. A curated selection of our very best long reads. But Russia is just so much less powerful and poorer and more fragile, even than it used to be. Terms of Use Explore the benefits included in your subscription. NATO is a system of collective security: its independent member states agree to defend each other against attacks by others countries. Washington and its allies have said in recent weeks that China was considering . The West has its problems, obviously, as does everyone in this pandemic. This alliance of autocracies, as Steven Lee Myers aptly deemed it, is built on a mutual belief that the Wests supremacy has declined, and that as great powers, China and Russia are entitled to rule their own spheres of influence and to use brute force to suppress human rights, self-determination and democracy. But (Ankara continues) to have some challenges with Sweden., He said he welcomed the fact that he and Erdogan agreed to a meeting soon of experts and officials in Brussels from the three countries involved to look into how we can make progress also on the ratification of Sweden as a full NATO ally., Follow APs coverage of the war at, 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events. NATO is a defensive alliance of European and North American countries. Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year has caused great concern amongst NATO allies in the West. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), founded in 1949, is a military alliance of 30 North American and European countries. The default username below has been generated using the first name and last initial on your FP subscriber account. Furthermore, China has conducted military exercises in Europe and the Middle East. Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and senior director of the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Only fully democratic counties can be members of NATO. As an authoritarian state looking to roll-back Western hegemony, are NATO and China in direct competition? Some NATO members, such as Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro, are closely linked economically to China. Speaking at Raisina Dialogue, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the French ambassador to Israel confirmed that there was a commitment not to expand NATO. Security, Russia has invaded its' former Republics and thus causing NATO to declare war on them. Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, told NBC News on Tuesday that the U.S. needs to be careful not to send too much military hardware to Ukraine or it could risk . What will another year of war look like? Instead of asking how much territory Russia has taken in one year, one should ask in what ways are the US, EU, and NATO weakened since Feb 2022 vs Russia, China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, South Africa, etc. NATO allies also dominate in the air with over 20,000 total aircraft. So, its clear that China is not formally opposed to NATO, but it does see NATO as a key part of the Western world order. Fri, Feb 24, 2023 LOGIN Subscribe for $1 Cue the protests from other parts of the globe: A chorus of nations are accusing Washington of fostering unfair competition. The UK is the second biggest overall spender in Nato, putting nearly 50bn into defence annually, compared with Germany's 45bn, France's 42bn and Italy's 20bn. They may not be able to stay out of this for long. Stoltenberg told the AP that following talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week he could see Turkey is moving closer to being ready to ratify and (to) welcome Finland into the alliance. NATO has over 4,000 more combat aircraft than China does. Global Affairs Explained participants in a number of affiliate programs, including by Amazon Services LLC. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said any Chinese involvement in the Kremlins war effort would be a serious problem. Ties between China and the U.S. are under severe strain over Taiwan and other issues. NATO countries have so far kept up their support for Ukraine, but fear Russian President Vladimir Putin could turn his attention to other former Soviet states including those that are now a part of NATO. Thank you for supporting the site. I have previously written about the forces that have driven the burgeoning alliance between China and Russia, including in The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and Americas Crisis as well as The End of Democracy? In order to fully understand any possible conflict between China and NATO, we need to think about how China views NATO. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the Chinese Communist Party's most senior foreign policy official Wang Yi raising concern in the West that Beijing might be ready to offer Moscow stronger support in the almost year-old war. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday called on China to refrain from sending weapons . That is the reason Western leaders have been ruling out the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone. Managing public perception about the war to control the narrative and maintain support seems to have required a divorce between what NATO officials are telling Ukraine privately and what they are telling the public they are telling Ukraine. For over a century now the nations of the continent have been some of the most advanced and prosperous globally. The question on everybodys mind though is what Nato will do if the conflict escalates further. Their predictions are that NATO would win but with devastating losses. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also told The Associated Press in an . "The situation is still very tense and China is trying to destroy the status quo or at least the symbol of the status quo, which is the median line of the Taiwan Strait. They point to Chinas power and Asias wealth and argue that Asia should be the priority. Its leaders know that a war with Russia will be MAD (mutually assured destruction). The number of troops NATO has is a key factor in determining how strong it is compared to Chinas military. Then other neighbouring countries may be next.". Chinese President Xi Jinping has also used his military to aggravate neighbouring Asian countries as well as the West. Deterring China and Russia at the same time will not be easy, but it is better than pretending Washington can deal with one major-power rival or the other at its convenience. While Washington pivots to Asia, wealthy European countries, such as Germany, should step up to provide for NATOs defense. It has over 1.4 billion people, compared to the combined populations of NATO countries 946 million. Written by the former American General and National Security Advisor, it is one of the best theories on what NATO stands for today and how the alliance should tackle global threats. FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. The pandemics outbreak brought rare reporting freedoms. Crucially, China strongly opposes the formation of a NATO-type alliance in Asia. Despite the clear signs that were coming from Moscow for months, the alliance today looks like a deer caught in the headlights so confused it is either unable or not willing to do anything. Express. But the inducements encourage U.S. companies to invest only at homenot elsewhere. Adm. Philip Davidson, former commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, predictedChina could invade Taiwan within the next six years. With 14,061 planes (vs Russias 3,212) and the Navys 17,781 ships (including 11 aircraft carrier) vs Russias 4,650 vessels (one aircraft carrier), the US clearly has an edge. Russia won China's backing in its showdown with the West over Ukraine as Beijing agreed with Moscow the US-led NATO military alliance should not admit new members. Both on your website and other media. The U.S. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. But to put it simply, imposing a no-fly zone is practically a declaration of war with Russia. Russia and China are set to hold military drills alongside a number of other countries as tensions with the west grow. Apart from a nuclear strike or a conventional inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), China lacks the military strength to launch an attack over such a distance. Russia From NATO's point of view, Russia has to be made to pay a high price if it invades Ukraine, to deter it from advancing further. In recent decades China has risen to become a major global power. Unfortunately, Washington does not get to decide how its adversaries sequence their aggression. Meanwhile, in Russia, President Vladimir Putin celebrated Fatherland Day by invading Ukraine the next morning. Nato vs. Russia: who would win a war? Even if Moscow holds onto territory, the war has wrecked its future. have been reawakened to the danger Russia presents. Although NATO is clearly larger military than China, what would happen if a war broke-out between them? Originally Posted by Renegade. This year, the United States will spend $778 billion on defense compared to only $310 billion in Russia and China. To implement that, the US and Nato will have to patrol the skies over Ukraine and shoot down any Russian plane that enters that airspace. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia's naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen. Biden put on shades and, with a heavy security entourage, strutted through the central square of Kyiv (Ukraine's capital) as if to announce that a "new . He concluded his speech with a video that ended with the words, Close the sky over Ukraine. In similar speeches he has made during the past month, he urged everyone who would listen to confront Russias air power. In turn, Putin is betting that Western fatigue will hand him the victory his mauled army has so far been unable to achieve; meanwhile, Xi is sizing up Americas will to defend free and sovereign nations, should he decide to invade Taiwan. "If you put all these [moves together], it is part of their playbook for the future invasion of Taiwan. The following twelve states signed the treaty and became the founding members: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, United Kingdom and United States. And why would China be against it? If Putin had hoped to weaken NATO, the very opposite has happened, with Finland and Sweden on the cusp of joining the transatlantic military alliance. Competing with China militarily means competing globally, not just in Asia. The Biden administration initially hoped to put relations with Russia on a stable and predictable footing to focus on China, but Putin had other ideas, as the world is now seeing in Ukraine. At sea, China's navy has been threatening neighbouring countries for years. Others have expressed hope that Washington can peel these powers apart or even align with Russia against China, but these are not realistic solutions. One thing that has become crystal clear as Russia continues to advance in Ukraine is how helpless the United States-led Nato alliance looks despite calls to act more decisively to stop the war. To address this problem, many have proposed answers that simply will not work. Privacy Policy. When Russian troops crossed into Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, Nato was caught flat-footed by Moscow's sudden and unorthodox military campaign. Delivered Wednesday. The member states of NATO are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, UnitedKingdom, and the UnitedStates. One year into Vladimir Putins invasion of Ukraine, Russia is a pariah to most countries in the free world. rs worth well over $400 billion. It aims to protect the freedom and democracy of countries within the alliance. Delivered Wednesday. These cookies are used to improve your experience and provide more personalized service to you. 20,155. However, China sees NATO as key to Americas global dominance and therefore a reduction in NATOs influence would be a benefit to China. The rise of American-made chatbots has kicked off a flurry of Chinese activity. The US spends more on defence than the next nine big spenders in the world combined. This should include incorporating key allies into military planning, sharing responsibilities, and devising a rational division of labor for weapons acquisition. Russia is unlikely to accept the decision and will certainly not refrain from flying over Ukraine an all-out war is sure. A final point we should consider when discussing China and NATO is why isnt China a NATO member? However, the Chinese government does not have an official policy against NATO and it cannot be said that everyone in China has a hatred for the alliance. If China succeeds in taking Taiwan, it would be well on its way to disrupting the U.S.-led order in Asia, with an eye to doing the same globally. It is not clear if NATO could defeat China in a war. Immediately, the Biden administration can send a strong message to Beijing and Moscow by ramping up the number of U.S. soldiers we have stationed in Asia, as a deterrent to Chinese designs on Taiwan. As was the case in World War II, the U.S. Army would bear the brunt of defending Europe, while the Navy would concentrate on the Pacific. The overall size of a military force is often not enough to determine the outcome of a conflict. Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? Jessica Chen Weiss, formerly a senior advisor for policy planning at the State Department under the Biden administration, makes the case that the United States is becoming consumed by competition with China, a strategy that could lead to dangerous conflict. Chinese opinion turned further against the alliance when later newspaper reports suggested the attack was a deliberate action by NATO as they thought the embassy was being used to send communications for the Yugoslav army. Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with. Firstly, NATO has by far the most military personnel with over five million active troops thanks largely to the US military. The US and other countries have already supplied Ukraine with weapons, anti-aircraft systems and intelligence capabilities. What does that mean for trade and globalization? NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during a news conference on the eve of a NATO summit, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Brussels, Belgium March 23, 2022. Chinas main land dispute is over Taiwan, which is not a NATO member. Indeed, given that this new Cold War is every bit as dangerous as the last one, a meaningful increase in defense spending, focused on the 21st centurys emerging defense technologies, is in order. This is a key reason why China is not a member state. Finally, if necessary, Washington could always take a page from its Cold War playbook and rely more heavily on nuclear weapons to offset the local, conventional advantages of its rivals. Published: March 21, 2022 08:55 Mohammed Almezel, Editor-at-Large. Cue the protests from other parts of the globe: A chorus of nations are accusing Washington of fostering unfair competition. Opinion | Reply. WARSAW, Poland -- NATO's chief said Wednesday that the military alliance has seen some signs that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. India needs a Yash Chopra, India: Rahul Gandhi needs to get the messaging right. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a frank discussion about the Biden administrations China policy and alternatives that it ought to consider. 7 Reasons Why Canada Is Not A Poor Country. Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. The first question to ask when assessing a possible conflict between China and NATO is which is stronger militarily. To be clear, it is incumbent on the White House to communicate to Beijing that supplying lethal aid to Russia would be met with economic consequences and cause irreparable damage to Chinas relationship with the West. Lets explore this a bit more. Moreover, the United States is not France; it is not compelled to make gut-wrenching strategic choices about its national security due to constrained resources. European allies should invest in armor and artillery while Asian allies buy naval mines, harpoon missiles, and submarines. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a frank discussion about the Biden administrations China policy and alternatives that it ought to consider. The new Russian soldier doesn't come cheap, although at a cost of $65,000 per year, he is nearly a third less expensive than his NATO and American counterpart. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on. Xi is undermining Chinas growth model by cracking down on the private sector and rolling back liberalizing reforms, and his aggressive diplomacy is upsetting international economic relationships.